Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street + Bulls Vs Bears and Support & Resistance

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street + Bulls Vs Bears and Support & Resistance


Wall Street will be digesting lots of news this week including GDP and earnings, plus policy announcements from 3 central Banks

Money continues to rotate through market sectors, so watch for those stock forming good patterns off of long declines. Those are seen by savvy participants as value stocks, and are being accumulated at their bases by traders. When they break North, share owners get to see some serious percentage gainers.

Those make some good money in this kind of Wall Street scenario .

As for the state of the market, it is worrisome in here, but if money is flowing from them to other places, the move can continue North.

DJIA finished at 18003.75, +0.12% last Friday, with a small gainer, and the near term channel support around 17900, so we could see a drive North towards 18200-300 again despite the lack of Bullish momentum.

The US Fed meeting Wednesday may determine the next direction, as I write this commentary the DJIA June mini is trading at:

1:50a Jun 2016 17,889.00 -28.00 17,963.00 17,967.00 17,882.00

If the US Fed stays its course regarding supporting stocks, and the confidence continues as reflected in the increase in Bulls and fall in the Bears then the market can go either way as Sell in May, Go away approaches.


The Bulls Vs Bears

The Wall Street Bulls rose past the high hit 3 weeks ago, and Bears fell back to near 20, as stock traders and investors are buying into the Fed’s continuing to back the stock market.

The Bulls are at 47.4 Vs 41.2 last (remember, this is a contrarian indicator) and at 50 it becomes a danger signal

The Wall Street Bears are at 21.7 Vs 27.8 last, this is already in the danger zone.

Watch carefully, and stick with what is working, banking profits and moving up stops as required by prudence. Remember, cash is an asset and the name of this Wall Street game is to make money.
Support & Resistance

DJIA close: 18,003.75

18,181 the Jul 2015 high
18,288 the Mar 2015 high
18,351 the May 2015 all-time high

17,978 the Nov 2015 high
17,786 the Mar 2015 low
17,715 the Jun 2015 low
17,748 a April 2015 low
The 50-Day EMA: 17,417
17,351 the Sept 2014 high.
17,265 a Dec 2015 low
17,245 the Nov 2015 low
17,152 a Jul 2015 high
The 200-Day SMA: 17,122
17,068 a Jul 2014 high


S&P 500 close: 2091.58

2094 the Dec 2014 high,
2104 the Dec 2015 high
2116 the Nov 2015 high
2120 the Feb 2015 high
2126 the Apr 2015 high
2130 the Jun 2015 high
2135 the May 2015 all-time high

2079 the Nov 2014 high
2062 a Jan 2015 high
2046 the July 2015 low
2040 the Mar 2015 low
The 50-Day EMA: 2029
2023 the Nov 2015 low
2020 the Sept 2015 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2014
2011 the Sept 2014 high
1995 the Sept 2015 high
1991 the Jul 2014 high

NAS Comp close: 4906.23

4916 a Nov 2015 low
4960 the Sept 2015 high ( the Key reversal mark)
4999 the Oct 2015 upper gap mark
5009 a Mar 2015 high
5042 the Mar 2015 high
5100 the May 2015 high

4902 the Jul 2015 low
4894 the Sept 2015 high
The 200-Day SMA: 4850
4836 the Mar 2016 high
4815 the Dec 2014 high
4811 the Nov 2014 high
The 50-Day EMA: 4802

Have a terrific week.


Paul Ebeling, Analyst

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