Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX
The military coup in Turkey initially saw some volatility in the major stock market futures, but recovered and now are flat with a Bullish bias as I write the report. Asia marked seem to be taking in in stride after a mild test.
The central banks are “all in” and there is enough world uncertainty and the threat of more turmoil to keep the US Fed on hold re: interest rate hikes.
There are new highs on DJIA and S&P 500, and that means watching if the other indices can follow with S&P 400 in best position to post the next new high though it may test 1st.
It also looking at the Dow transports, and whether they follow with their own new high and confirm the DJIA new high or if they roll over with a lower high in an uncomfortable look similar to Y’s 2006/2007.
The Dow Transport index is over 1250 points from a new high and indeed has not passed the twin tops from Mary and April. If it makes a lower high here, not good news long term.
This week on Wall Street there are Northside plays to consider along with Southside plays on the volatile uncertainty.
The leadership is good enough and with the central banks backing the move, that is all that is necessary until the point is reached the central
banks have no more efficacy aka monetary tools. Not there yet, will be thought. When do not know. The US Fed will need Congress to help.
So, for now we wait to see how the Wall Street reacts at the open and perhaps get the chance to enter lower.
DJIA at 18516.55, +0.05%) has taken a much needed pause to refresh which may continue for another session or 2. The uptrend remains intact with the immediate target of 18600-50 unchanged. Any 200-300 points’ correction can be used to buy more aka “buy the dip”
Tactics are important, but the Wall Street game is biased in favor of the long-term investor.
Remember, always take what the market gives, and its your money and your responsibility
The Bulls Vs The Bears
VIX: 12.67; -0.15
VXN: 14.29; -0.37
VXO: 11.68; -0.57
Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 0.85; +0.23; 5 of 5 below 1.0, 14 of last 23 over 1.0. 18 of the last 35 below 1.0. 34 of 55 over 1.0.
The Bulls are at 52.5 Vs 47.1 last
Highest mark since early Y 2015. Around 60 is where Northside move have topped over the past 18 years.
The Bears are at 24.7 Vs 24.5 last
Support and Resistance
DJIA Close: 18,516.55
18,351 the 21 May 2015 high
18,168 he Apr 2016 high
18,181 the Jul 2015 high
18,016 the Jun 2016 high
17,978 the Nov 2015 high
The 50-Day EMA: 17,852
17,600 the bottom the Q-2 Y 2016 range.
17,351 the Sept 2014 high.
The 200-Day SMA: 17,349
S&P 500 close: 2161.74
2135 the May 2015 high
2130 the Jun 2015 high
2126 the Apr 2015 high
2120 the Jun 2016 high
2119 the Feb 2015 high
2116 the Nov 2015 high
2111 the Apr 2016 high
2104 the Dec 2015 high
2094 the Dec 2014 high
The 50-Day EMA: 2091
NAS Comp close: 5029.59
5042 the Mar 2015 high
5100 a May 2015 high
5176 the Dec 2015 high
5009 a Mar 2015 high
5007 the 31 Dec 2015 upper Gap mark
4999 the Oct 2015 upper Gap mark
4980 the Jun 2016 high
4969 the Apr 2016 high
4960 the Sept 2015 high
4916 a Nov 2015 low
4902 the Jul 2015 low
4894 the Sept 2015 high
The 50-Day EMA: 4867
Have a terrific week.