Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


I expected the US stock indexes to pause and test, but they have risen on a  stronger USD and the outlook for improved business.

The prospect of actual growth of companies doing business in the USD has driven the smaller cap stocks higher.

Again, after such a run we would expect a test.

S&P 500 and NAS Comp are at important tests of prior highs and this week will show their  strength in whether they test and how they test.

The financials, and metals are holding their gains as they consolidate while other groups edge higher, e.g. software and chips. That keeps the indices elevated even as they test.

Now instead of expecting a pullback across the board we look for stocks that are set up to move higher for new opportunities even as others that led the Bull charge consolidate.

Some of the early leaders are now in position to move North again after consolidating.  Some can and will test farther
before they are ready to move up again, but the patterns are solid and we want to be ready of they rally maybe as early as this week.

Remember, do not chase stocks be ready when they break out, Neutral does not mean Bullish

This is Thanksgiving week with the market closed Thursday and open till 1:00p EST on Friday.  That could put a lid on the action upside or downside, but in  the past Thanksgiving week has delivered.

So, if you see good moves, why not play them.

Always take what the market gives.


The Bulls Vs The Bears


Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 12.85; -0.5
VXN: 15.51; -0.51
VXO: 12.91; -0.31

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 0.94; +0.07

11 of 16 sessions over 1.0 on the close Friday. 4 of 5 sessions back below 1.0 after a long streak over 1.0 on the close. That gave plenty of Northside  impetus and the market is using it nicely

The Bulls Vs The Bears

Bears posted their highest numbers in months and stocks rallied. Not at extreme levels either way.

The Bulls are at 51.0 Vs 42.9 last

The Bears are at 23.5 Vs 25.7 last


Suport and Resistance



DJIA close: 18,867.93



The 10-Day EMA:18,713
18,669 the Aug 2016 high
18,595 the Jul 2016 high
The 50-Day EMA: 18,370
18,351 the May 2015 high
18,288 the Mar 2015 high
The 50-Day SMA: 18,280

S&P 500 close: 2181.90

The Y 2016 trendline at 2188
2194 the Aug 2016 all-time high

2175 the Jun 2016 high
The 10-Day EMA at 2165
The 50-Day EMA at 2148
The 50-Day SMA at 2146

NAS Comp close: 5321.51


5340 the Sept 2016 all-time closing high.

5309 an Oct 2016 high
5288 the Sept 2016 high
5275 the Y 2016 up trendline
5271 the Aug 2016 high
The 50-Day SMA: 5243
5232 the Y 2015 all-time high
The 50-Day EMA: 5222

Have a terrific week, Happy Thanksgiving

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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