Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


This is the last full week before the US election on November 8th. It is also NFPs Report week.

The GDP at 2.9% is bunk, now expect a jobs report stuffed with some minimum wage jobs and more people looking for full-time
jobs but being disappointed.

But, hang on the Headline is what matters most, Yes?.

Overall the market is holding, and there is still some leadership at work.

And we have earnings, lots more, the S&P 500 has about 130 members reporting to Wall Street, among them the DJIA component Phizer (NYSE:PFE).

So far we have seen some good, but some big misses. As the indices march in place, and in these big cap irons, the small and mid-caps broke down.

Perhaps things will hold on this week nothing will change in the market before the election.

As I write this report the 3 major US stock market index futures are trading flat with a Bearish Bias, Monday, 31 October 2:57a EDT

So, for now we wait to see as many participants have quit trading and buying for longer term or you can take advantage of the short term plays.

There are always some nice plays setups out there to take advantage of if and when they make the moves.

Overall, like the Downside is here, that has nothing to do with the election, it is what patterns are telling me.

Ah, let us not forget he Fed aka Wall Street’s silent partner, the November meeting opens Tuesday, and the announcement is Wednesday afternoon at 2:00p EDT. CME’s indicator indicates a 90% chance of no change.

Despite the negative pattern build, do not assume that it is gospel. Be alert do not get blindsided. you can get blindsided.

Remember, there will always be a trade, and always take what the market gives.


The Bulls Vs The Bears




VIX: 16.19; +0.83
VXN: 18.23; +0.9
VXO: 17.16; +0.88

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 1.11; +0.27. After commenting how the PCR had not risen given the selling, it jumps over 1.0.
20 1.0+ Readings in 6 wks, 16 of the last 35 sessions over 1.0. After a 2 week string of readings less than 1.0, finally a move over that mark.

Note: The  significance is the streak below 1.0 even as the Wall Street turned more volatile D-D. Breaking back over shows a change in sentiment toward worry.

The Bulls Vs The Bears

As volatile as the D-D back and forth in the indices: the Bulls jumped back up and Bears fell back to the level 2 weeks
prior. Still, well off the 59ish mark that Bulls hit on the last run higher.

The Bulls are at 47.1 Vs 42.9 last

The Bears are at 23.1 Vs 23.8 last


Support and Resistance


DJIA close: 18,207.89

The 50-Day EMA: 18,230
18,247 the Aug 2016 low
18,262 the upper Gap mark from the Monday gap lower.
The 50-Day SMA: 18,274
18,288 from Mar 2015
18,351 the May 2015  high
18,400 the Oct 2016 high
18,595 the Jul 2016 high
18,669 the Aug 2016 high

18,168 the Apr 2016 high
18,100 from Dec 2014
18,016 the Jun 2016 high
17,960 the Oct 2016 low
17,992 a Sept 2016 low
17,978 the Nov 2015 high
The 200-Day SMA: 17,717


S&P 500 close: 2126.41

2130 the Jun 2015 high
2135 the May 2015 high
The 50-Day EMA: 2148
The 50-Day SMA: 2156
The Y 2016 trendline at 2160
2175 the Jun 2016 high
2194 the Aug 2016 high

2126 the Apr 2015 high
2120 the Jun 2016 high
2119 the Sept 2016 low
2116 the Nov 2015 high
2111 the April 2016 high
2104 the Dec 2015 high
2094 the Dece 2014 high
2079 the Nov 2014 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2077


NAS Comp close: 5190.10

5211 the Y 2016 up Trendline
The 50-Day EMA: 5228
5232 the 2015 high
The 50-Day SMA: 5252
5271 the Aug 2016  high
5288 the Sept 2016 high
5340 the all-time closing high

5170 the Oct 2016 low
5176 the Dec 2015 high
5100 the Apr 2016 high
5042 the Mar 2015 high
5009 a Mar 2015 high
4999 the Oct 2015 upper Gap mark
4980 the Jun 2016 high
4969 the Apr 2016 high
4960 the Sept 2015 high
The 200-Day SMA: 4925

Have a terrific week

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

One Response to "Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street"

  1. Kevin Reed   October 31, 2016 at 6:52 pm


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