Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


Last week we saw volatility back in the US stock market. After a quiet prior week as the indices narrowed ranges, the triple digit intra-day moves erupted again. 

Earnings reports to Wall Street are full on this week and we start to see just what Q-3 really meant, and in the big and bigger pictures of the profits trending lowerer.

Friday JPM, WFC, C. brightened a bleak picture early in the week. The big banks should look good, as they are still getting money at the Fed window for next to nothing.

“Doesn’t everyone wish they could borrow from the Fed for next to nothing then use the money to buy guaranteed return assets thus ensuring a profit?

“You have to ask the  question if they can why can’t we?

“About the only thing the consumer has going for him is a strengthening USD.

“That is nice but thus far it has not had an impact on rising Crude Oil prices, the usual effect of a higher USD.”

DJIA, S&P 500, S&P 400, have the rollover look, and NAS Comp is close to giving me that feeling in here too.

The Big Q: Can the Fed hold up the market into the US Presidential election to avoid the turmoil of a crashing stock market?

Certainly the Democrats hope and pray so.

This week looking at some more mixed Northside and Southside action, we have to be patient on getting really involved until there is a clear trend, so playing it Neutral in here, cash is the Key asset in a market like this.

There could be a bounce off of the lows on the September selloff. A rebound back up to the top of the range (17,900-18,500) can happen, but until something changes, each move has to be viewed as more of a trade on a bounce Vs a new run North.

As I write this report the 3 major US stock index futures are moderately down, the bias is Bearish at 3:38a EDT Monday 17 October.

Overall my outlook is Neutral/Bearish, but if the Fed and the other Key central banks decide to buy equities the picture changes.

Again, the Key is going to be which way the indexes break North of South, the will get back in the action.

If you have to play, look for short profits and bank them, remember there will always be a trade.

The Bulls Vs The Bears



Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 16.12; -0.57
VXN: 17.4; -0.25
VXO: 15.99; -0.56

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 0.94; -0.03  Nineteen 1.0+ Readings in 5 weeks, 15 of the last 26 sessions over 1.0.
Still lots of Pessimism.

The Bulls are at 46.1 Vs 46.7 last

The Bears are at 23.1 Vs 22.8 last


Support and Resistance


DJIA close: 18,102.53

18,168 the Apr 2016 high
18,247 the Aug 2016 low.
18,288 the Mar 2015 high
18,351 the May 2015 high
The 50-Day SMA:18,357
18,595 the Jul 2016 high
18,669 the Aug 2016 all-time high

18,181 the Jul 2015 high
18,016 the Jun 2016 high
17,978 the Nov 2015 high
The 200-Day SMA: 17,640


S&P 500 close: 2132.55

2135  the May 2015 high
The 50-Day SMA: 2165
2175 the June 2016 high
2194 the Aug 2016 all-time high

2130 the Jun 2015 high
2126 the Apr 2015 high
2120 the Jun 2016 high
2119 the Feb 2015  high
2116 the Nov 2015 high
2111 the Apr 2016 high
2104 the Dec 2015 high
2094 the Dec 2014 high
2079 the Nov 2014 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2068


NAS Comp closed: 5213.33

The 50-Day EMA: 5221
5232 the 2015 high
5271 the Aug 2016 high
5288  the Sept 2016 high
5340 is the recent all-time closing high.

5176 the Dec 2015 high
5100 some April & May highs
5042 the Mar 2015 high
5009 a Mar 2015 high
4980 the Jun 2016 high
4969 the Apr 2016 high
4960 the Sept 2015 high
4916 a Nov 2015 low
4899 the Sept 2015 high
The 200-Day SMA: 4900

Have a terrific week.

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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