Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


Monday, the major US major stock indexes finished at: DJIA +88.55 at 18329.04, NAS Comp +36.27 at 5328.67, S&P 500 +9.92 at 2163.66

Volume: Trade was light on Columbus Day with about 666-M/shares exchanged on the NYSE

  • Russell 2000 +10.1% YTD
  • NAS Comp +6.4% YTD
  • S&P 500 +5.9% YTD
  • DJIA +5.2% YTD

Last Friday the US jobs report came out and now the Wall Street looks to earnings. The forecast is for a 6th Quarter running is fo declining  profits.

Ok, they can beat Wall Street’s expectations, but expectations are constantly moving due South.

The Fed has not hiked and will not hike until December if then. The US economy, despite what you hear on TV, is not ramping much less inching up, according to surveys I read about the health of small businesses in the nation.

That means that the US GDP number will be revised down in 2-H of this year to 1.6% or lower.

The major market indices are hanging in and perhaps the large cap NYSE looked better, at least DJIA, to end the week. Still, there are some deep dives,even as some sectors continue to rally and support the Wall Street leaders.

Thus far the indices are hanging on, refusing to go ahead and break, e.g. DJIA, S&P 500. With the stretch laterally we are looking at some choice upside plays this week, but there are also some stocks that are struggling and more than a few DJIA stocks have the look of weakness, setting up near term double tops and other Bearish looks.

I am looking for trends to emerge, and if those weaker index patterns do not break soon the odds of doing so drop considerably unless the stronger indices start to falter.

Always remember take what the market give, and that cash in times like these is an asset.


The Bulls Vs The Bears





VIX: 13.48; +0.64
VXN: 15.66; -0.04
VXO: 14.08; +0.58

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 1.18; +0.18

There are 17 1.0+ readings in 5 weeks, 13 of the last 21 sessions over 1.0.  Lots of Pessimism in here

With the volatility subsiding, The Bulls continued to recover and The Bears continued to fall.

The Bulls are at: 46.7 Vs 45.2 last

The Bears are at 22.8 Vs 23.1 last


Support and Resistance


DJIA close: 18,240.49

18,247 the August 2016 low
18,288 the Mar 2015 high
18,351 the May 2015 high
The 50-Day SMA: 18,373
18,595 the Jul 2016 high
18,669 the Aug 2016 high

18,168 the Apr 2016 high
18,181 the Jul 2015 range low
18,016 the Jun 2016 high
17,978 the Nov 2015 high
The 200-Day SMA: 17,629

S&P 500 close: 2153.74

The 50-Day SMA: 2167
2175 the Jun 2016 high
2194 the Aug 2016 all-time high

2135  the May 2015 high
2130 the Jun 2015 high
2126 the Apr 2015 high
2120 the Jun 2016 high
2119 the Feb 2015 high
2116 the Nov 2015 high
2111  the Apr 2016 high
2104 the Dec 2015 high
2094 the Dec 2014 high
2079 the Nov 2014 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2067


NAS Comp close: 5292.40

5340 the recent all-time closing high.

5288 the Sept 2016 high
5271 the Aug 2016 high
5232 the 2015 high
The 50-Day EMA: 5215
5176 the Dec 2015 high
5100 a May 2016 high
5042 the Mar 2015 high
5009 a Mar 2015 high

Stay tuned…


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