Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


A lot of economic data, earnings, and central bank moves are already in the market, but more data and earnings are coming out this week.

Currently, there are important moves happening: bonds rallying, Gold and Silver rallying, USD falling, and leadership stocks holding up.

So, as long as the market show leadership with Crude Oil stocks holding patterns despite Black Gold’s fall, active participants will be working on finding good stocks in position to enter play for gains, North or South.

In this central bank stimulus driven stock market I expect positive sentiment to remain in place if the economic data shows like weakness that came up last week.

The US Fed says it is data dependent but does not act when data is good, and then some bad data does actually hit and the entire process starts all over again, make Wall Street wonder, is the Fed out of tools, are the ECB and BOJ as broke as they appear?

So, in this scenario look for stocks to play to the Northside as the US Fed again put off hiking rates, and the BOJ considers raining “Helicopter Money” on the nations consumers and businesses in September.

As I write this report the S&P 500 mini Sept futures are trading higher by +8.00 and the DJIA mini Sept futures are +76.00 on Monday 1 August at 12:30a EDT.

  • Russell 2000 +7.4% YTD
  • S&P 500 +6.3% YTD
  • DJIA +5.8% YTD
  • NAS Comp +3.1% YTD

The Bulls Vs The Bears


Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 11.87; -0.85
VXN: 13.97; -0.87
VXO: 11.52; -2.11

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 1.2; +0.3. the 1st move over 1.0 on the close in 15 sessions.

Note: the Bulls hanging in the low 50’s, just off the 60ish mark that “smells” correction. The Bears are falling significantly and are also near marks where stock corrections have occurred.

The Bulls are at 53.9 Vs 54.4 last

The Bears are at 21.6 Vs 23.3 last


Support and Resistance


DJIA close: 18,432.24



The 10-Day EMA: 18,449
18,351 the May 2015 high
18,288 the Mar 2015 high
18,168 the Apr 2016 high
18,100 the Dec 2014 high
The 50-Day EMA: 18,067
18,016 the Jun 2016 high
17,978 the Nov 2015 high
17,600 the bottom of the Apr/Jun 2016 trading range.
The 200-Day SMA: 17,435


S&P 500 close: 2173.60



The 10-Day EMA: 2165
2135 the May 2015 high
2130 the Jun 2015 high
2126 the Apr 2015 high
2120 the Jun 2016 high
2119 the Feb 2015 high
2116 the Nov 2015 high
The 50-Day EMA: 2116
2111 the Apr 2016 high
2104 the Dec 2015 high
2094 the Dec 2014 high

NAS Comp close: 5162.13

5162 a Nov high, 5176 the Dec high

5100 from the Apr/May 2016 high
The 10-Day EMA: 5100
5042 the Mar 2015 high
5009 a Mar 2015 high
4999 the Oct 2015 upper Gap mark
4980 the Jun 2016 high
4969 the Apr 2016 high
4960 the Sept 2015 high
The 50-Day EMA: 4946


Have a terrific week

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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