Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Stree

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX

This stock market is resilient, the DJIA at 20663.77, -0.31% wants to rise from marks near 20400, and could inch up towards 21200 near term. There is some room on the Northside near term. A re-test to 20500-20400 could occur during this week, setting up a climb out of the trading range.

US Consumer Sentiment rose in March as Americans registered “Sunnier” views about the state of their finances while becoming less upbeat about the long-term economic outlook, University of Michigan (MSI) survey data showed Friday.

The rumor that a vote would come in the House last Thursday, was just that a rumor. But a positive came from the golf outing between President Donald Trump and US Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)

Again, this past week we saw how resilient is market be in the face of the Obamacare repeal opposition. The prospects of tax reform package getting some focus too in here, and President Trump appears to be moving forward on both Key initiatives.

Thus, I am not counting on the timing of any of the deals though that does not mean it cannot happen timely.

The Key is being ready with different plays, to the Northside and Southside, to take advantage of the direction. On top of  that there are great trends in place in some sectors, and there are great plays very good trends, not just hanging, but showing
very good action.

So, let President Trump and the GOP Congress look after the politics, and play the moves that come off that. I believe it will be positive, will be ready and take what the market gives.

Pay attention in here it is your money and your responsibility.

 

The Bulls Vs The Bears

Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 12.96; -0.16
VXN: 12.66; -1.04
VXO: 13.34; +1.12

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 1.21; +0.08. 4 of 5 sessions back over 1.0 on the close, indicating a lot of protection purchases as well as some out and out playing the Southside. If gets near 10 that would be toward the extreme marks.

The Bulls Vs The Bears

The Bulls recovered some lost ground after coming off the cycle high that saw several weeks of Bullishness over 60%.

The Bulls are at: 56.7 Vs 53.4 last

The Bears are at 17.3 Vs 17.5 last

 

Support and Resistance

Friday’s closes: DJIA -65.27 at 20663.77,  S&P 500 -5.34 at 2362.71 and NAS Comp -2.61 at 5911.75

  • NAS Comp +9.8% YTD
  • S&P 500 +5.5% YTD
  • DJIA +4.6% YTD

DJIA close: 20,663.77

Resistance
21,100 the Mar 2017 interim high
21,169 the all-time high

Support
The 50-Day EMA: 20,472
The 50-Day SMA: 20,449
20,126 the Jan 2017 intra-day high
20,101 a Jan 2017 high.
19,994 a Jan 2017 high
19750 from the Jan 2017 lows
The 200-Day SMA: 19,047

 

S&P 500 close: 2362.71

Resistance
2354 the Y 2016 trendline
2390 the Mar 2017 interim high
2401 the all-time high

Support
The 50-Day EMA: 2332
The 50-Day SMA: 2331
2301 a Jan 2017 high
2280 from Jan 2017
2278 the Dec 2016 high
2213  the Nov 2016 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2208

 

NAS Comp close: 5911.75

Resistance

5928 the March 2017 all-time high.

Support
5800 from the Feb 2017 lows
The 50-Day SMA: 5753
The 50-Day EMA: 5750
5661 a Jan 2017 upper gap mark
5652 the Y 2016 trendline
5601 the Jan 2017 lower gap mark
5404 the Nov 2016 high
The 200-Day SMA: 5343

Have a terrific week.

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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