Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


Looking at the major US stock market action as President Trump  continues coming down hard on trade issues, and NATO next.

Over the past few weeks we have a lot of pundit chatter about a market top, and stocks sold into the test during that frame.

Notably, new highs in the indices, many new highs in stocks, and that often brings out calls of a market top.

And there is the News

The Trump Administration’s trade discussions, the pundit predictions, fears, rumors, speculation, and some lame opining .

The real story is in the background

The Fed says it will continue hiking in order to be ready for the next crisis. And ironically the yield curve is flattening as the Fed says it continues its path to normalize overnight funds rates.

In my experience, the Fed typically overacts and causes the slowdowns it fears. That it is bent on tightening as the yield curve flattens of course raises investor concerns.

And so the resolution at this Key support remains huge.

As for trade, Friday there were reports of more ‘troubling’ developments,  primarily that President Trump is seeking at WTO withdrawal, and behind that the WB, the IMF, and the UN, and hang on NATO too.

The fact is that The Trump White House wants Key changes to the US’ involvement and willingness to just go along…

President Trump is the Good cop and the Bad cop all wrapped in 1 the strongest leader in the world.


The Bulls Vs The Bears

Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 16.09; -0.76
VXN: 20.88; -0.88
VXO: 15.26; -0.92

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 1.24; -0.08

The Bulls Vs The Bears

Bulls fall, while the Bears rise, and typically sentiment is inverse of trade.

Negative sentiment is rallying as stocks test Key support, thus auguring for a move to the Northside.

The Bulls are at: 47.6 Vs 52.0 last

The Bears are at: 18.4 Vs 17.6 last


Support and Resistance

HeffX-LTN’s US Major Stock Market Indexes Technical Analysis for the Week Ended 29 June 2018

Date Symbol Price Technical Analysis Support Resistance
29 June 2018 QQQ 172.41 Bullish (0.31) 172.04 173.48
29 June 2018 DIA 244.33 Neutral (-0.14) 240.09 245.59
29 June 2018 SPY 273.18 Neutral (0.17) 270.60 273.32

Have a terrific 4th of July Freedom Week

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