Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) Bearish Divergence
Overview for the first quarter of 2017 as compared to the first quarter of 2016:
Revenue increased 28.1% to $1.07 billion
Comparable restaurant sales increased 17.8% (including 0.6% from recognized revenue previously deferred related to Chiptopia)
Restaurant level operating margin increased to 17.7% from 6.8%
Net income was $46.1 million, improved from a net loss of $26.4 million
Diluted earnings per share was $1.60, improved from a diluted net loss per share of $0.88
Opened 57 new restaurants
For the full year of 2017, management is targeting the following:
Comparable restaurant sales increases in the high-single digits
195 – 210 new restaurant openings
An estimated effective full year tax rate of approximately 39.0%
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 445.36.
The projected upper bound is: 503.72.
The projected lower bound is: 472.37.
The projected closing price is: 488.04.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 43.0289. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 70.45. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 114.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
CHIPOTLE MX GRL closed up 9.280 at 486.860. Volume was 45% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 8% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
480.490 490.460 480.490 486.860 226,421
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 477.89 437.26 412.57
Volatility: 26 23 35
Volume: 217,144 162,981 164,760
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
CHIPOTLE MX GRL is currently 18.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CMG.N at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CMG.N and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that CMG.N is currently in an overbought condition. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (Chipotle), together with its subsidiaries, operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. The Company’s Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants serve a menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. As of December 31, 2016, the Company managed its operations and restaurants based on 11 regions. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated 2,198 Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, as well as 29 international Chipotle restaurants, and it also had 23 restaurants in operation in other non-Chipotle concepts. As of December 31, 2016, 29 of its restaurants were located outside of the United States, with 17 in Canada, six in the United Kingdom, five in France and one in Frankfurt, Germany. The Company sells gift cards, which do not have an expiration date. The Company categorizes its restaurants as end-caps (at the end of a line of retail outlets), in-lines (in a line of retail outlets), free-standing or other.
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