China Markets Remain Overvalued

China Markets Remain Overvalued

HEFFX is positive on South East Asian and Chinese growth but with some caution, “in general we see the market as overvalued, we are looking for opportunities but we are mindful of valuations” HEFFX said in a note to traders last week.

The stock market on mainland China, known as the A-share market, has struggled to regain momentum since last summer’s rout. Just before the recent slide began, at the end of last year, the benchmark Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index briefly touched a high of 3,684.57.

Yet, at the end of last week, the A shares were on an extended five-week decline. On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite slid 0.2% to 2,815, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index shed 0.2% to 1,800. The CSI 300 Index inched down 0.1% to 3,059 and the small-cap ChiNext Index fell 0.4% to 2,067.

With prices falling, investors are leaving in droves. This has sent the share volume on both the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to sink significantly from a year ago. According to SCMP, the current daily aggregate turnover in Shanghai and Shenzhen is only a fifth of what it was in April last year. On Tuesday, the Shanghai bourse recorded turnover of 121.1 billion yuan (143.42 billion Hong Kong dollars), its lowest in 18 months.

Asset management and investment banking businesses account for a small portion of the revenue at Chinese brokerages. Most of their revenue comes from trading commissions. And with turnover plunging so are commissions. The Securities Association of China said the net profit of Chinese securities companies plunged 43% in the first quarter from a year ago.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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