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China kicks off new Shanghai: SSE Composite Index (.SSEC) tech board as it tests new ways to improve volatile stock market

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China kicks off new Shanghai: SSE Composite Index (.SSEC) tech board as it tests new ways to improve volatile stock market

The first tranche of companies on China’s new Nasdaq-style tech board started trading on Monday, with all the stocks seeing gains on their public debut.

Still, some are cautioning against jumping quickly into the action.

“I think this market, it needs to … basically take a little bit of patience to develop,” Eugene Qian, president of UBS Securities, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday.

“For anything new in China, there is a tendency for retail-oriented markets like China to overly speculate,” Qian said, adding that this would contribute to a “short-term bubble” that may not be sustainable.

The new technology board — the Science and Technology Innovation Board, or “STAR Market,” which is operated by the Shanghai Stock Exchange — comes as China attempts to address investor concerns about market volatility and the lack of governance.

It’s easier for firms to go public in the new STAR Market tech board, compared to listing on the Shanghai A-share market, as companies need to go through a registration instead of waiting for regulatory approval which could take longer.

Many of the stocks listed on the new tech board are similar to those on the Chinext in Shenzhen, which is already included by MSCI in its indexes, Qian said.

“I think there will be opportunities for long-term, value-driven … international investors later on,” he said.

Looking ahead, the Shanghai Stock Exchange said an index tracking the STAR Market will be launched on the 11th trading day following the debut of the 30th company on the board.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 2,952.40.

The projected upper bound is: 2,977.53.

The projected lower bound is: 2,794.33.

The projected closing price is: 2,885.93.

Candlesticks

A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.

If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with SSE COMPOSITE), it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 29.3769. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.95. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 50 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -102.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

SSE COMPOSITE closed down -37.227 at 2,886.974. Volume was 32% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 36% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
2,925.7882,927.1602,879.6902,886.97418,067,496,960

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 2,921.57 2,925.54 2,814.00
Volatility: 12 20 27
Volume: 14,912,015,360 19,754,483,712 22,652,747,776

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

SSE COMPOSITE is currently 2.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .SSEC at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .SSEC and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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