Chicago Agriculture Commodities Finished Mixed on the Week

Chicago Agriculture Commodities Finished Mixed on the Week


Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agriculture commodities ended mixed on the week ended 16 March with the Wheat prices plunging more than 4% on poor export sales and rainfall in the US plains.

The most active Corn contract for May delivery fell 7.75c weekly, or 1.98%, to 3.8275 bu.

May Wheat delivery lost 21.5c weekly, or 4.39%, to 4.6775 bu.

May Soybean rose 10.25c weekly, or 0.99%, to 10.495 bu.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest weekly export data Thursday.

For the frame 2-8 March, US exporters reported sales of 162,800 tonnes of Wheat for delivery in MY 2017/2018. The sales were down 58% from the prior week and 47% from the prior 4-week average.

The poor export performance prompted sharp fall of CBOT Wheat prices.

More pressure came on Friday from rainfall in central US plains, which is expected to ease the dryness in the wheat growing areas.

Precipitation across Europe, especially the Black Sea region and Russia are building prospects for larger Wheat crops, said market analysts.

May Corn fell about 2%, which is the biggest weekly loss since January. Argentina’s drought has been mostly digested, and focus is now shifting to the Northern Hemisphere, where weather outside of the US southern and western plains has been largely favorable.

Consolidation for Corn prices is expected over the next 2 weeks, with US export demand is accelerating, rather than slowing.

CBOT Soybean traded up and down through the week and were higher at Friday’s close. Traders were trying to assess if the rainfall over Argentina is too late or too little for the crops there.

Thursday, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released their estimate that Argentina Soybean yield could decrease to 40-M tonnes from the prior 46-M tonnes, though rain started to fall in the drought-hit areas earlier this week, with another round of precipitation at the weekend.

Additional support came from upbeat data of US Soybean export sales, which underpinned the CBOT Soybean futures. USDA reported weekly sales of 1,269,600 tonnes of Soybean for 2017/2018 delivery, +30% from the prior 4-wk average.

The US has picked up a significant amount of export business in the last several weeks, and current sales and shipments are now starting to align with the USDA’s export forecast.

Agriculture grain traders are concerned about the US steel and aluminum tariffs, which they fear may bring retaliation from other countries and in that case, US agricultural commodities could be the target.

Have a terrific week

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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