Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) stuck in a range as technical indicators clash
USD/CAD price action has been capped by the 200-day moving average for the last month and will need a bullish driver to regain upside momentum. The daily chart shows USD/CAD below all three moving averages, although the 20-day is being threatened, with the recent one-month high at 1.3312 (September 4) the first bullish target if the moving averages are cleared and closed above. To the down side, 1.3134, the September 10 low print guards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January 2018 – January 2019 rally at 1.3128.
The pair need a driver to break higher and upcoming US data and Fed speak may provide a catalyst. In the data space, US ADP employment is released today at 12.15 GMT, ISM-non-manufacturing is released on Thursday at 14.00 GMT while on Friday the monthly US jobs market report (NFP) at 12.30 GMT will keep traders glued to their screens. All three have the ability to move the US dollar, while the Canadian dollar calendar is empty for the rest of the week.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.32.
The projected upper bound is: 1.34.
The projected lower bound is: 1.32.
The projected closing price is: 1.33.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.9913. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 60.26. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 64 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 246.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX CAD= closed up 0.001 at 1.333. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.332 1.333 1.332 1.333 643
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.33 1.33 1.33
Volatility: 5 5 6
Volume: 59,143 69,776 86,637
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX CAD= is currently 0.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.