Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) slides on dovish BoC
USD/CAD recorded strong gains for a second successive week, climbing close to 1 percent. There are only two events on the calendar in the week ahead. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
The Bank of Canada maintained the benchmark rate at 1.75%, where rates have been pegged since October. The rate statement was dovish, which weighed on the Canadian dollar. In the rate statement, policymakers dropped a reference to rates rising over time. Instead, the bank said that the economy will continue to require stimulus and said that there was “increased uncertainty” about future rate hikes. The pessimistic language is a result of the economic slowdown, which has been worse than the bank anticipated. The BoC’s dovish tone has reinforced market expectations that the bank will not raise rates in the near future, and could lower rates if the economy continues to weaken.
Canada and the U.S .both ended the week with key employment numbers, with very different results. Canada added 55.9 thousand, crushing the estimate of 0.6 thousand. In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls plunged to 20 thousand, much worse than the forecast of 180 thousand. Wage growth improved to 0.4%, above the estimate of 0.3%. The Canadian dollar responded with slight gains to end the week.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.36.
The projected lower bound is: 1.32.
The projected closing price is: 1.34.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 89.8850. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 47 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 122.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX CAD= closed down -0.004 at 1.341. Volume was 31% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 7% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.345 1.347 1.339 1.341 125,397
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.33 1.33 1.32
Volatility: 7 8 8
Volume: 117,861 102,743 90,349
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX CAD= is currently 1.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.
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