Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) rises as NAFTA optimism renews ahead of deadline for deal
The Canadian Dollar advanced against rivals Wednesday amid renewed hopes a deal to save the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) could be announced before the week is out, and analysts at Goldman Sachs are forecasting the Loonie will continue to rise over coming months.
Officials from both sides of the U.S.-Canada border are thought to be aiming for an agreement before the end of September. After that point U.S. legislators will not have the necessary 60 days to scrutinise the deal ahead of its signing, which is required by law, before incoming Mexican president Abdres Manuel Obrador Lopez takes office in December.
The USD/CAD rate was quoted 0.07% lower at 1.2963 during noon trading Wednesday but is up 3% for 2018, while the Pound-to-Canadian-Dollar rate was 0.19% lower at 1.7048 and is up 0.67% this year. The Loonie was also higher against most of the rest of the G10 basket.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.30.
The projected upper bound is: 1.31.
The projected lower bound is: 1.28.
The projected closing price is: 1.29.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 10.5144. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.52. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 60 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -125.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX CAD= closed up 0.001 at 1.292. Volume was 94% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 11% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.291 1.293 1.291 1.292 5,000
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.30 1.31 1.29
Volatility: 7 8 8
Volume: 70,549 82,403 87,012
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX CAD= is currently 0.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.