Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) Rally Stalls at Resistance
Technical Outlook: In my previous Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we highlighted a key near-term resistance zone at 1.3284/88 while noting, “Expect acceleration IF price can break higher here with such a scenario exposing longer-term downtrend resistance near 1.3355.” A topside breach last week saw price register a high at 1.3348 before pulling back – is there more to go?
Initial support now rests back at the 61.8% retracement at 1.3288 with broader bullish invalidation at the September channel line / monthly open at 1.3240. A topside breach targets the 100% extension at 1.3382- looking for a bigger reaction there IF reached.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.32.
The projected upper bound is: 1.34.
The projected lower bound is: 1.32.
The projected closing price is: 1.33.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 5 white candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 73.7446. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.28. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 67 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 88. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX CAD= closed down -0.000 at 1.331. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 41% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.331 1.331 1.330 1.331 605
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.33 1.33 1.33
Volatility: 5 5 6
Volume: 60,592 70,567 86,904
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX CAD= is currently 0.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.
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