Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) Quiet After Mixed Retail Sales Data

Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) Quiet After Mixed Retail Sales Data

Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) Quiet After Mixed Retail Sales Data

Canadian consumers have not been in the best of moods, as recent retail sales reports have been weak. On Friday, the September retail sales were a mixed bag. Retail sales posted a second straight decline of 0.1%, but managed to beat the estimate of -0.3%. There was better news from core retail sales, as the gain of 0.2% put an end to back-to-back declines. The response of the Canadian dollar was muted.

Technical Analysis

The round number of 1.3300 remains relevant. Currently, it is a weak support level. The next support level is at 1.3170, which has held since early November. Note that the 200-EMA and 50-EMA follow closely. The 200-EMA is at 1.3232 and the 50-EMA immediately follows at 1.3215. Below, we find support at 1.3175.

On the upside, the round number of 1.33 remains vulnerable. Above, there is resistance at 1.3370.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.34.

The projected lower bound is: 1.32.

The projected closing price is: 1.33.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 55.9725. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.38. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 103 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 49. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX CAD= closed up 0.001 at 1.328. Volume was 34% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 7% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.327 1.329 1.326 1.328 45,381
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.33 1.32 1.33
Volatility: 4 5 6
Volume: 55,191 66,202 80,850

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX CAD= is currently 0.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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