Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) Locking in Gains

Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) Locking in Gains

Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) Locking in Gains

The Canadian dollar is consolidating its recent gains. Last week’s robust employment report may have reduced the incentive for the Bank of Canada to trim interest rates at its October meeting which underpinned the currency. Overnight, China announced it was exempting more than a dozen U.S. imports from tariffs. The move suggests the somewhat frosty trade negotiations have started to thaw, and the so-called “riskier assets” were in demand.

The news got President Trump’s attention. He tweeted “China suspends Tariffs on some US products. Being hit very hard, supply chains breaking up as many companies move, or look to move, to other countries. Much more expensive to China than originally thought.”

The Canadian dollar is vulnerable to a selloff if tomorrow’s ECB meeting leads to a sharp fall in EUR/USD as the currency pair tend to track broad dollar moves. In addition, the recent commodity bloc currency rally has stalled at significant resistance levels.

Today’s U.S. and Canadian economic data will not have an impact on FX trading.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.33.

The projected lower bound is: 1.31.

The projected closing price is: 1.32.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 34.0186. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 49 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -65. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX CAD= closed up 0.000 at 1.320. Volume was 94% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 6% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.319 1.320 1.319 1.320 4,430
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.32 1.32 1.33
Volatility: 6 5 6
Volume: 58,811 67,565 87,151

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX CAD= is currently 0.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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