Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) lack of fundamental triggers to push the pair decisively in any direction

Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) lack of fundamental triggers to push the pair decisively in any direction

Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) lack of fundamental triggers to push the pair decisively in any direction

The Canadian dollar today attempted to rally higher against its US counterpart in the American session after the release of the upbeat Canadian Ivey PMI data. The USD/CAD currency pair today traded mostly directionless amid a lack of fundamental triggers to push the pair decisively in any direction.

The USD/CAD currency pair today rallied from an opening low of 1.3338 to a high of 1.3372 before heading lower during the American session.

The currency pair today rallied higher in the Asian session as crude oil prices pulled back as tracked by the West Texas Intermediate, which hit a low of 61.89. The loonie seems detached from oil prices given that crude oil prices are up over 35% this year, but the loonies still lags behind. The loonie’s recent gains can be largely attributed to the positive trade headlines as the US and China remain optimistic about a trade deal. Recent data from the Canadian docket has indicated that the country’s economy has slowed down as the country suffers from low oil exports and declining productivity.

The loonie rallied after the release of the Canadian Ivey PMI data, which came in at 54.3 beating expectations set at 51.1. The pair’s rally was limited by the greenback’s recovery as tracked by the US Dollar Index, which hit a high of 97.34, reversing most of the loonie’s gains.

The currency pair’s future performance is likely to be affected by tomorrow’s Canadian employment data and the US non-farm payrolls report.

The USD/CAD currency pair was trading at 1.3349 as at 15:38 GMT having dropped from a high of 1.3372. The CAD/JPY currency pair was trading at 83.58 having risen from a low of 83.34.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.33.

The projected upper bound is: 1.35.

The projected lower bound is: 1.32.

The projected closing price is: 1.34.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 5 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 47.5827. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.59. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 67 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -2. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX CAD= closed up 0.000 at 1.336. Volume was 93% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 57% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.335 1.337 1.335 1.336 6,778

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.34 1.33 1.32
Volatility: 5 7 7
Volume: 105,014 111,928 92,258

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX CAD= is currently 1.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 34 periods.

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