Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) investors wait for cues

Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) investors wait for cues

Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) investors wait for cues

The Canadian dollar is quiet in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1353, up 0.12% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian indicators, while the U.S released one minor event. On Tuesday, the U.S. posts CB Consumer Confidence. As well, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.

Stock markets have moved higher on Monday, as investors are increasingly optimistic that the U.S-China trade talks will culminate with an agreement. Will the optimism boost the Canadian dollar as well? On Sunday, President Trump waved off the threat of raising tariffs against China on March 1. Trump tweeted that the sides had made substantial progress, and if that trend continued, he would meet with Chinese President Xi. The global trade war has disrupted international trade and dampened global growth, so a breakthrough in the trade talks could fuel a stock market rally and boost the Canadian dollar higher.

The Canadian consumer tightened the purse string in December, as retail sales contracted. Core retail sales and retail sales both declined for a second straight month. Core retail sales fell 0.5%, while retail sales dropped 0.1%. The weak consumer numbers will be further ammunition for the Bank of Canada to remain on the sidelines unless there are clear signs that the Canadian economy is gathering steam. Canadian numbers have been mixed, as the labor market remains strong, while consumer spending and manufacturing numbers have faltered.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.34.

The projected lower bound is: 1.30.

The projected closing price is: 1.32.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 5 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 38.6461. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.90. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 39 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX CAD= closed up 0.001 at 1.320. Volume was 84% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 26% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.319 1.320 1.318 1.320 14,235

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.32 1.33 1.32
Volatility: 7 7 8
Volume: 98,883 93,457 88,989

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX CAD= is currently 0.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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