Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) forming a corrective pattern

Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) forming a corrective pattern

Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) forming a corrective pattern

USD/CAD’s rebound and break of 1.3143 resistance last week suggests short term bottoming at 1.3016. That case after failing to sustain below 1.3052/68 key support zone. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 1.3212). Sustained break there would pave the way back to 1.3564/3664 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 1.3116 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3016 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

In the longer term picture, outlook remains unchanged that price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are forming a corrective pattern. Rejection by 1.3793 resistance would raise the chance of lengthier extension, with risk of dropping through 1.2061 low before completion.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.33.

The projected lower bound is: 1.30.

The projected closing price is: 1.32.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 83.0844. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.58. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 116.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX CAD= closed up 0.000 at 1.317. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 24% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.316 1.317 1.315 1.317 300
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.31 1.32 1.33
Volatility: 4 6 7
Volume: 56,473 73,023 90,419

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX CAD= is currently 1.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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