Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) focus on weekly close around 1.3355/70
The Canadian Dollar down more than 0.75% against the US Dollar since the start of the week with USD/CAD testing the upper-bounds of a multi-month range in price heading into major US event risk tomorrow. It’s the moment of truth for Loonie.
In my last Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that the, “broader focus remains on a break of the 1.3155- 1.3355 zone for guidance on our near-term directional bias.” Two week later, and Loonie has continued to hold this range with USD/CAD now approaching the upper bounds of this critical zone. Key resistance stands at 1.3355/70 – a region defined by the 2019 high-week close and the 61.% retracement of the May decline. Note that the 75% parallel also converges on this region this week and further highlights its technical significance.
Price is already poised to mark an outside-weekly reversal this week with US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap tomorrow morning. A topside breach / close above would expose the highlighted confluence zone around the March highs near 1.3467 – look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Interim support rests at the median-line with a close below 1.3155 needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend targeting the yearly low-week close at 1.3059.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.32.
The projected upper bound is: 1.34.
The projected lower bound is: 1.32.
The projected closing price is: 1.33.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 5 white candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 71.9889. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 64 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 247.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX CAD= closed up 0.000 at 1.332. Volume was 11% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.332 1.335 1.331 1.332 64,204
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.33 1.33 1.33
Volatility: 5 5 6
Volume: 65,499 71,047 86,955
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX CAD= is currently 0.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.
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