Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) could rise more than 5% during months ahead
The Canadian Dollar is set to remain in a holding pattern against the greenback over coming months but is likely to cede ground to an oversold Australian Dollar going forward, according to analysts at TD Securities and CIBC Capital Markets.
Bank of Canada (BoC) monetary policy means Canada’s Dollar is likely to resist any further advance of the U.S. greenback during the months ahead, despite that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised its interest rate more than any other developed world central bank.
McCormick says “fair value” for the USD/CAD rate is just above the 1.30 level so, after having dipped as low as 1.28 at the beginning of October, the exchange rate is now likely to re-converge with its equilibrium level. Exchange rates do normally fluctuate within ranges that almost always straddle their “fundamental value”.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.32.
The projected lower bound is: 1.29.
The projected closing price is: 1.30.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 51.4220. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.45. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 80 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 81. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX CAD= closed up 0.001 at 1.302. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 18% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.302 1.303 1.301 1.302 2,533
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.30 1.30 1.29
Volatility: 8 8 9
Volume: 76,333 83,097 89,474
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX CAD= is currently 1.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.
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