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Sunday, April 18, 2021

Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) continues to firm as risk sentiment improves

Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) continues to firm as risk sentiment improves

The Canadian dollar continues to gain against the US dollar as global risk sentiment remains positive in the short-term. USD/CAD rose had one of its best month’s in the last three years in March, rallying from around 1.3400 to a peak of 1.4670 before turning lower mid-month. A bounce-back from March 27 is also now being erased as the Canadian dollar looks to this week’s OPEC+ meeting to steady an uneasy oil market. If the OPEC+ delegates can agree on substantial production – with 10 million barrels a day being mooted – the price of oil should move higher, underpinning recent Canadian dollar strength.

The US dollar continues to trim recent gains after a range of Fed liquidity measures satiated a market in desperate need of US dollars. While the greenback remains the global safe-haven of choice, further downside in USD/CAD may be limited.

The daily chart shows the recent downtrend remains in control of price action with USDCAD today touching both resistance and support. As we stand support looks under more pressure than resistance with the recent series of higher lows broken yesterday and today. The pair also closed decisively below the 20-dma yesterday, adding another short-term bearish impulse. A breakout looks increasingly likely as the pair near the apex of the triangle formation. Support seen at 1.4010 ahead of 1.3918 with current resistance off the downtrend around 1.4150.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.44.

The projected lower bound is: 1.37.

The projected closing price is: 1.40.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 21.9166. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -101.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX CAD= closed up 0.003 at 1.402. Volume was 71% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 65% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.399 1.404 1.398 1.402 20,403
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.41 1.37 1.33
Volatility: 15 14 8
Volume: 124,411 90,972 69,039

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX CAD= is currently 5.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 55 periods.

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