Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) Canadian employment slowed
The Canadian dollar has edged lower in the Friday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3098, up 0.07% on the day. On the release front, Canadian employment change slowed to 11.2 thousand, short of the estimate of 12.7 thousand. However, the unemployment rate ticked lower to 5.8%, just below the estimate of 5.9%. Over in the U.S, Nonfarm payrolls rocketed to 250 thousand, crushing the estimate of 194 thousand. This marked the second highest gain in 2018. Wage growth eased to 0.2%, matching the forecast, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%.
The Canadian economy grew 0.1% in August, marking a seventh straight month of expansion. Higher oil production in Alberta and higher oil prices fueled the modest gain. The economy has been performing well and remains on track for annualized growth of 2% in 2018. Unemployment is at low levels and is expected to remain pegged at 5.9% for October. The Bank of Canada raised rates last week to 1.75%, and the hawkish message from the bank was a broad hint to the markets that further rate hikes are in store. With the economy operating close to full capacity, rate hikes are an effective method of ensuring that the economy does not overheat. The BoC is also mindful that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates again in December, which would mark a fourth rate hike in 2018. Policymakers do not want to see divergence widen between U.S and Canadian rates, and another rate hike from the BoC would be bullish for the Canadian dollar.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.30.
The projected upper bound is: 1.33.
The projected lower bound is: 1.29.
The projected closing price is: 1.31.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 38.5477. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.51. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 92 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 23. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 20 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX CAD= closed down -0.001 at 1.310. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 26% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.310 1.311 1.309 1.310 1,693
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.31 1.30 1.29
Volatility: 5 8 9
Volume: 82,940 83,761 89,553
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX CAD= is currently 1.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.
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