Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) breakout testing initial resistance hurdle near six-week highs
The Canadian Dollar is down nearly 2% against US Dollar with USD/CAD rallying to fresh six-week highs on the back of last month’s breakout. Despite broader Dollar weakness, Loonie has remains vulnerable with the immediate focus now on near-term uptrend resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts this week.
The USD/CAD breakout remains viable here, but the immediate advance may be vulnerable while below near-term uptrend resistance. From a trading standpoint a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Ultimately a larger pullback may offer more favorable entries targeting a topside breach of this resistance zone- For now, I’m looking to fade a spike higher. Keep in mind we still have Canada employment data on tap this Friday- stay nimble.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.34.
The projected lower bound is: 1.31.
The projected closing price is: 1.33.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 82.8390. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 65.11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 23 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 153.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 21 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX CAD= closed down -0.000 at 1.327. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 28% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.328 1.328 1.327 1.327 2,034
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.32 1.32 1.33
Volatility: 3 6 7
Volume: 64,732 71,955 89,785
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX CAD= is currently 0.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.