British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) UK Retail Sales Decline 0.6% in November
The Office for National Statistics reported a month over month decline of 0.6% in retail sales for the UK. The figure fell short of the analyst estimate for a rise of 0.3% and reflected the largest drop since December 2018.
GBP/USD has not shown much of a reaction to the data as investors brace for the latest rate decision from the Bank of England. At the last meeting, two policymakers surprised the markets by voting for a rate cut. Analysts are expecting the vote to remain the same this around and for the interest rate to remain unchanged.
Policymakers will get a chance to express their views following the UK election. Sterling was boosted initially by the election but has come under pressure this week after Boris Johnson once again brought up fears of a no-deal scenario. Johnson announced earlier in the week that he intends not to allow any further delays and will implement a law to ensure it, even if it means leaving without a deal.
The technical outlook for GBP/USD is signaling more downside at the moment, but that could change quickly depending on the outcome of the BoE meeting.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.29.
The projected upper bound is: 1.32.
The projected lower bound is: 1.28.
The projected closing price is: 1.30.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 8.8599. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.23. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed down -0.007 at 1.301. Volume was 7% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 22% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.308 1.313 1.299 1.301 102,391
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.32 1.29 1.27
Volatility: 13 10 9
Volume: 103,540 105,409 126,266
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 2.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.