British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) UK retail sales data revealed that sales unexpectedly rose

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) UK retail sales data revealed that sales unexpectedly rose

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) UK retail sales data revealed that sales unexpectedly rose

Year-on-year sales jumped from May’s downwardly revised 2.2 per cent to 3.8 per cent, and excluding fuel annual sales rose by 3.6 percent. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) stated: “All four main sectors contributed positively to the amount spend, and all sectors except food contributed positively to the quantity bought.

This resulted in year-on-year contributions of 4.3 and 3.8 percentage points respectively.” The results helped Sterling edge up 0.4% against the dollar despite a hard-hitting fiscal risks report.

The results helped Sterling edge up 0.4 percent against the dollar despite a hard-hitting fiscal risks report.

The report from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) stated that the UK would be dragged into a recession in the case of a no-deal Brexit. 

Added to this, the fiscal watchdog warned that business surveys from last month suggest the UK may already be entering a ‘full-blown recession’. 

The OBR warns: “Surveys were particularly weak in June, suggesting that the pace of growth is likely to remain weak. This raises the risk that the economy may be entering a full-blown recession.

“The fiscal risks posed by recessions depend on their depth and persistence, the sectors most deeply affected, and the pace at which the economy subsequently recovers.” 

The GBP/USD gains were supported by Wednesday’s disappointing data from the Commerce Department, which revealed that US homebuilding slumped for the second consecutive month.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.27.

The projected upper bound is: 1.27.

The projected lower bound is: 1.24.

The projected closing price is: 1.25.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 62.3116. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.09. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 26. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed down -0.001 at 1.253. Volume was 93% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 8% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.255 1.255 1.252 1.253 10,530

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.25 1.26 1.29
Volatility: 9 7 10
Volume: 105,703 126,299 165,654

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX GBP= is currently 2.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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