British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) this week’s key events are the PMI reports
British consumers remain gloomy about the economy, as GfK Consumer Confidence dropped to -13, below the estimate of -11. Britain’s balance of payments deteriorated in Q1, as the current account deficit widened to GBP 3.0 billion, up sharply from 27.3 billion in Q4 of 2018. This marked the largest deficit in three years. Final GDP posted a respectable gain of 0.5% in Q1, unchanged from the initial estimate.
In the U.S., this week’s numbers were a mixed bag. CB consumer confidence dropped to 121.5 June, down sharply from 131.3 in May. This marked its lowest level since September 2017. First-quarter GDP was unrevised in the second estimate, with a strong gain of 3.1%. Durable goods orders disappointed with a decline of 1.3%, its third decline in four months. There was no movement from the Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge. The indicator remained stuck at 0.2%.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.28.
The projected lower bound is: 1.25.
The projected closing price is: 1.27.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 25.4495. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.28. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 21 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 38. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed down -0.000 at 1.269. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 41% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.269 1.270 1.269 1.269 4,562
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.27 1.28 1.29
Volatility: 5 7 10
Volume: 110,655 135,334 170,635
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 1.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.
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