British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Struggling with Weak Data
Data so far this week, particularly consumer price index (CPI) yesterday, has not done much to reinforce the idea that the Bank of England (BoE) will raise rates in August, impacting GBP/USD.
The price is testing the area around $1.3020, the lows of yesterday’s session. Below this, the lows of August 2017, around $1.2773, come into view.
With all of the drama and noise around the United Kingdom over the last couple of days, it’s not a huge surprise that the British pound has taken it on the chin. However, as we saw the Americans come to work on Wednesday, the pair was testing a major support level. The 1.30 level has been important more than once, and I think at this point if the British pound is going make some type of stand, it’s here.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.32.
The projected lower bound is: 1.29.
The projected closing price is: 1.30.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 18.4759. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 32.31. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -159.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed up 0.000 at 1.301. Volume was 93% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 26% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.301 1.302 1.301 1.301 10,889
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.32 1.33 1.36
Volatility: 6 7 9
Volume: 160,159 167,742 153,163
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 4.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.
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