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Tuesday, October 19, 2021

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Returning to Recent Lows

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Returning to Recent Lows

The Pound returned toward recent lows against the Euro and Dollar going into the London close Wednesday after an opposition attempt to create law preventing a ‘no deal’ Brexit from taking place under the next Prime Minister was defeated in the House of Commons. 

Shadow Brexit Secretary and Labour Party MP Keir Starmer had joined with rebel Conservative Party MP Oliver Letwin in an attempt to sieze control of the parliamentary agenda for the session taking place on Tuesday 25 June.

Opposition MPs were expected to use that session to create new laws that would seek to prevent a ‘no deal’ Brexit from happening under any circumstances, tying the hands of the next Prime Minister in the process. A Conservative Party leadership election will name the next PM this summer.

Some candidates in the race to replace outgoing Prime Minister Theresa May had pledged in recent days to take the UK out of the EU on October 31, the date when the current extension of the Article 50 negotiating period ends, whatever the political weather in London and Brussels.

Keir Starmer said after Wednesday’s vote that Labour will continue to do whatever it can to prevent the UK from the leaving the EU without a formal agreement, even though the opposition and many government MPs have repeatedly rejected what they say is the only agreement on offer from Brussels.

Opposition MPs have previously been succesful in seizing control of the agenda to legislate in favour of extending the Brexit process, although they had significant help from some Conservative Party MPs on that occasion. 

Labour’s Yvette Cooper had brought forward a bill that forced the Government to seek a one-off extension of the Article 50 exit process to avoid no-deal happening on April 12. It passed by 313 votes to 312, a majority of 1.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.28.

The projected lower bound is: 1.26.

The projected closing price is: 1.27.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 12 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 43.5434. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed up 0.000 at 1.269. Volume was 94% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 65% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.269 1.269 1.268 1.269 9,553

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.27 1.29 1.29
Volatility: 5 6 10
Volume: 126,303 143,652 173,127

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX GBP= is currently 1.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.

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