British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Rate Hits Worst Level Since August 2017

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Rate Hits Worst Level Since August 2017

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Rate Hits Worst Level Since August 2017

THE pound has had a poor start to the week, declining against the US dollar and making losses against most other currency peers. This deterioration in the pound US dollar exchange rate has put Sterling down to a level of $1.297 on fears over a bad Brexit deal.

Initially after opening at the level of 1.3102 last week, GBP/USD edged higher on Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike expectations. However, Brexit fears dragged GBP/USD lower to end the week near the level of 1.3001. On Monday this week, GBP/USD tumbled into the region of 1.29 and at the time of writing was trending near an 11-month-low of 1.2920 – its lowest level since August 2017.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.31.

The projected lower bound is: 1.28.

The projected closing price is: 1.29.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 9.9350. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 32.71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 26 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -180.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed down -0.006 at 1.294. Volume was 21% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 23% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.301 1.302 1.292 1.294 131,151

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.31 1.32 1.36
Volatility: 7 8 9
Volume: 164,582 171,878 156,225

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX GBP= is currently 4.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of GBP= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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