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British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) publication of the UK’s latest GDP figures is likely to dominate movement in the currency pair


British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) publication of the UK’s latest GDP figures is likely to dominate movement in the currency pair

The pound is rangebound against the US dollar and many of the currency’s other peers this morning as sterling continues to build on recent stability. The US dollar and the euro have experienced dramatic movement over the last couple of days, mostly as a result of concerns surrounding US-China trade. Amid this volatility, Sterling has surprised by remaining firm, with recent Brexit headlines failing to propel GBP exchange rates.

Looking ahead, publication of the UK’s latest GDP figures is likely to dominate movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate through the second half of the week.

This is likely to see the pound come under significant pressure as economists forecast a stagnation, maybe even contraction of UK economic growth for the second quarter.

Accompanying the GDP figures will be the UK’s business investment report, expected to reveal an investment slump in Q2.

Meanwhile, for US dollar investors the focus remains on trade headlines, with mounting tensions between the US and China likely to impact USD.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.25.

The projected upper bound is: 1.23.

The projected lower bound is: 1.20.

The projected closing price is: 1.21.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 47.0586. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 29.96. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -65. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed down -0.002 at 1.215. Volume was 14% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 85% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.217 1.219 1.212 1.215 115,319
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.22 1.25 1.28
Volatility: 8 8 10
Volume: 120,283 123,248 161,412

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX GBP= is currently 5.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that GBP= is currently in an oversold condition.

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