British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) moved into a consolidation phase

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) moved into a consolidation phase

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) moved into a consolidation phase

Despite the strong surge in GBP early this month, we have held the same view since last Wednesday (07 Nov, spot at 1.3100) wherein “it would be surprising if the rebound in GBP could break 1.3190” (GBP subsequently traded to a high of 1.3176).

However, the manner of which it plunged below the 1.3000 ‘key support’ last Friday was not exactly expected (low of 1.2959). While the price action does not change the overall neutral outlook for GBP, upward pressure has eased and the 1.3176 high is deemed as a short-term top.

In other words, we do not expect GBP to move above 1.3176 for the next couple of weeks. For now, we view the current movement as part of a consolidation phase. Near-term, the bias is tilted to the downside but at this stage, we view any weakness as part of a broad 1.2800/1.3080 range.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.31.

The projected lower bound is: 1.26.

The projected closing price is: 1.28.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 19.5459. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.45. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 60 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -31. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed down -0.013 at 1.285. Volume was 13% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 29% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.296 1.296 1.283 1.285 201,409

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.30 1.30 1.34
Volatility: 15 11 9
Volume: 194,199 183,571 173,785

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX GBP= is currently 4.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.

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