British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) longer-term bearish trend might be ready for continuation

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) longer-term bearish trend might be ready for continuation

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) longer-term bearish trend might be ready for continuation

The British Pound recovered in the latter-portion of last week after failing to drive through the 1.3000 level. That was the first test of the key psychological level since last year, and retail traders have been suspiciously bearish around the move, highlighting the potential for a deeper retracement before the longer-term bearish trend might be ready for continuation.

With it still being unclear whether the BoE will raise interest rates next month, markets will be looking to glean any information they can, with Sterling likely to surge should Broadbent indicate he is leaning towards a hike.

GBP will struggle to edge higher against USD and AUD because of ongoing Brexit related uncertainties. The UK House of Commons is in recess from 24 July to 4 September but the internal and external political hurdles Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May faces with respect to Brexit negotiations remains. It’s still unclear if PM May’s July 2018 White Paper proposals on the future relationship between the UK and EU will be accepted by European leaders.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.33.

The projected lower bound is: 1.29.

The projected closing price is: 1.31.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 38.7031. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -67. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed down -0.003 at 1.310. Volume was 6% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 34% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.312 1.316 1.308 1.310 157,170

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.32 1.33 1.36
Volatility: 9 8 9
Volume: 178,270 172,270 154,344

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX GBP= is currently 3.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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