British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Just Shy Of $1.30 Ahead Of Johnson-Corbyn Debate
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate traded sideways on Tuesday as UK politics remain firmly in focus ahead of the upcoming general election on 12 December.
This comes after the GBP/USD exchange rate roared higher at the start of the week, in light of polling data showing the Conservatives have increased their lead against Labour.
GBP investors are seen as favouring the Conservatives in the upcoming election on hopes a majority in Parliament will allow Boris Johnson to finally push through his Brexit deal.
However with just over four weeks to go before the election, there is still plenty of time for Labour to mount a comeback, after all Theresa May also enjoyed a similar lead ahead of the 2017 election.
Jeremy Corbyn will be hoping that he will be able to close the gap on Tuesday evening as he goes head-to-head with Boris Johnson in a televised debate.
These TV debates have traditionally been a chance for the underdog to play catch up, with those in the lead having the most to lose.
James Mills, a former adviser to Corbyn sums it up the best: ‘You can’t win the election from this debate, it’s the first one. But you can lose it.’
YouGov is set to publish its latest polling figures immediately following the debate, expect to see the Pound come under some pressure if Corbyn comes out of the debate on top and we see Labour recoup some ground against the Conservatives.
US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rates Remain Side-lined by Impeachment Proceedings, US-China Trade Uncertainty
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) continued to struggle on Tuesday after facing some broad selling at the start of the week.
Some of this underlying weakness in USD appears to come as a result of some jitters over the ongoing impeachment inquiry, which looks set to heat up this week as senior national security officials make appearances.
Donald Trump stands accused of abusing his power as President to pressure Ukraine into making political favours, which could see him impeached if he is found guilty.
Adding to the pressure on the US Dollar is the fall in US Treasury bond yields, coming in response to renewed US-China trade uncertainty.
This followed reports by CNBC that Beijing is pessimistic about the chances of a deal being passed due to Trump’s reluctance to roll back tariffs.
USD investors fear that the collapse of a ‘phase 1’ trade deal would weigh on the US economy and prompt the Federal Reserve to introduce additional monetary easing.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.32.
The projected lower bound is: 1.27.
The projected closing price is: 1.29.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.5687. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.52. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 90. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed down -0.003 at 1.292. Volume was 20% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 64% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.295 1.297 1.291 1.292 90,950
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.29 1.26 1.27
Volatility: 6 11 10
Volume: 95,537 109,146 134,584
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 1.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 26 periods.
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