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Tuesday, October 19, 2021

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) is the Weakest Currency in July Thus Far

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) is the Weakest Currency in July Thus Far

Support at the psychological 1.2500 handle failed to hold GBP/USD higher in the early week as the pair was last seen trading at 1.2464.

Much of the decline is attributed to a stronger dollar, although Sterling weakness has also been a significant factor. For the month thus far, the British pound is the weakest among the major currencies. It is down nearly one and a half percent against the greenback.

Sterling is also the second weakest currency for the week thus far, falling behind the Australian dollar on the decliners list.

Fed Communication to Drive the Dollar

The greenback has been on a tear as of late as investors readjust expectations for US monetary policy easing.

Several Fed members are speaking today which stands to impact the dollar, and as a result, the majors. Fed members Bullard and Chair Powell are both delivering speeches today. Fed member Quarles is also on the docket, but his speech seems the least likely to move the markets.

The biggest driver this week is probably going to be Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. The testimony will take place over Wednesday and Thursday. It is very likely that discussions of monetary policy will impact the dollar pairs.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.26.

The projected lower bound is: 1.23.

The projected closing price is: 1.24.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 18 white candles and 32 black candles for a net of 14 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 14.5720. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 29.44. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 27 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -141.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed down -0.005 at 1.246. Volume was 63% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 10% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.251 1.252 1.245 1.246 55,803

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.26 1.27 1.29
Volatility: 4 7 10
Volume: 110,873 130,522 168,748

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX GBP= is currently 3.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that GBP= is currently in an oversold condition.

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