British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) investors will be watching employment, inflation and retail sales this week

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) investors will be watching employment, inflation and retail sales this week

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) investors will be watching employment, inflation and retail sales this week

GBP/USD showed little movement last week. It’s a busy week in the U.K, with employment, inflation and retail sales reports. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

Britain and the EU agreed to extend Brexit until October, but with Britain hopelessly divided on what happens next, does the extension really change things? The monthly British GDP report showed that the economy slowed to 0.2% in February, compared to 0.5% a month earlier. There was better news on the manufacturing front, as manufacturing production jumped 0.9%, crushing the estimate of 0.2%.

In the U.S., inflation levels pointed higher in March. CPI, the key gauge of consumer spending, climbed to 0.4%, its highest gain since January 2018. The producer price index also looked strong, climbing 0.6%, marking a 5-month high.

Shayne Heffernan said in a note that the Brexit has been extended, but the deadlock in parliament remains, and investors will remain concerned over the political turmoil and uncertainty. The British economy is showing signs of strain, and the pound could lose ground if economic data is not stronger than expected.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.33.

The projected lower bound is: 1.29.

The projected closing price is: 1.31.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 51.9774. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 25 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.86. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 32 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -28. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed unchanged at 1.308. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 32% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.308 1.309 1.307 1.308 1,020

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.31 1.31 1.30
Volatility: 5 11 11
Volume: 157,895 172,431 179,059

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX GBP= is currently 0.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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