British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) In Focus Ahead of Keynote Speech by Carney

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) In Focus Ahead of Keynote Speech by Carney

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) In Focus Ahead of Keynote Speech by Carney

In today’s session, BoE Governor Mark Carney will be speaking which could spark some GBP movement. Meanwhile, investors will be looking to tomorrow’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release to see how inflation is faring across the pond. The final German inflation numbers will also print tomorrow.

So far in today’s session, the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has been trending between levels of 1.3241 and 1.3285. Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate has been fluctuating between the boundaries of 1.1298 and 1.1322.

It’s been a volatile few days for the Pound Sterling (GBP) exchange rate, and speculation is mounting that the recent difficulties in UK politics could serve as a hindrance for the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate path.

The BoE is widely expected to up interest rates for the second time in the past year at next month’s August Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. However, with Conservative Party resignations left, right, and centre, it’s possible more dovish members of the Bank’s MPC might err towards stability in interest rates.

Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Sensitive to Political Developments

Theresa May could find herself face to face with a leadership challenge or a snap election in the near future which could create some dramatic market swings, not to mention widespread uncertainty.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.33.

The projected lower bound is: 1.31.

The projected closing price is: 1.32.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 25.6458. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.42. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -1. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed up 0.000 at 1.321. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 51% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.320 1.321 1.320 1.321 5,378

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.32 1.33 1.36
Volatility: 8 7 9
Volume: 155,505 163,062 151,392

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX GBP= is currently 2.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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