British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) fell rather hard

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) fell rather hard

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) fell rather hard

The British pound initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but fell rather hard. We had broken through the most recent low at the 1.2850 level, and now it looks as if we are going to continue to go lower.

The 1.28 handle will be targeted, and perhaps even lower than that. This has been a precipitous fall in the British pound, but at this point it looks very unlikely that we will go much lower than that due to the fact that there is so much in the way of noise. It’s only a matter time before we find buyers based upon value, but at this point it’s very likely that we have some work to do.

If you were going to short the British pound, you should have done it already. This isn’t to say that we can’t continue to go lower, quite frankly I think we will but there will be a lot of noisy moves between here and wherever we end up. We are historically cheap, and I do believe that longer-term traders will be looking for the opportunity to pick up Sterling at these low levels.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.30.

The projected lower bound is: 1.26.

The projected closing price is: 1.28.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 12 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 6.2185. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 34.84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 54 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -158.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed down -0.006 at 1.284. Volume was 23% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 22% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.291 1.292 1.282 1.284 129,130

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.30 1.31 1.30
Volatility: 9 10 10
Volume: 137,261 165,268 177,293

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX GBP= is currently 0.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of GBP= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.

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