British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Falls After Anemic GDP Figures

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Falls After Anemic GDP Figures

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Falls After Anemic GDP Figures

The British pound has broken down significantly during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week, slicing through the 1.30 level. However, we are starting to see signs of support just below that area, as we have bounced from there previously. The question now is whether or not the market will continue to focus on the idea of a possible rate cut by the Bank of England, or if it will focus on the idea of the currency being cheap from the longer-term standpoint. I think there are a lot of reasons to think that this market will eventually bounce, but we may have a bit of volatility in the short term.

The market seems to have a lot of support extending all the way down to at least the 1.28 level which was the bottom of a bullish flag. At this point, the market continues to be longer-term bullish, but the question is when can we find enough support? You will need to be cautious and probably jump into this position to the upside with small bits and pieces, perhaps building a core position.

Ultimately, this is a market that will offer an of value the people will be paying attention to it. At this point, the market still looks at the 1.35 level above as the ceiling, so we will probably struggle to break above there anytime soon. If we did though, it would show a major shift in value and should send this market much higher. All things being equal I am a buyer but I also recognize that we may have to do it at lower places.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.32.

The projected lower bound is: 1.28.

The projected closing price is: 1.30.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

A gravestone doji occurred. This often signifies a top (the longer the upper shadow, the more bearish the signal).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 15.5588. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -119.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed up 0.000 at 1.299. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 26% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.299 1.299 1.299 1.299 11
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.31 1.30 1.27
Volatility: 7 9 9
Volume: 85,225 95,427 118,056

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX GBP= is currently 2.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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