British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) eyes Bank of England, USD Fed and China trade talks
The main event for the Pound in the week ahead will be testimony from Bank of England (BOE) governor Mark Carney the Parliamentary Treasury Select Committee, on Wednesday, August 22, covering the inflation and economic outlook.
Although the BOE raised interest rates at the start of August, the chances of a further hike in the short term are generally viewed as low mainly given the increasing uncertainty around Brexit. Carney recently said the chances of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit were “uncomfortably high” and that this presents a risk to the economy.
The Pound is highly correlated with interest rates because of their influence over foreign capital inflows. Higher rates tend to attract greater inflows of capital, which raises demand for Sterling. Therefore, traders will be analysing Carney’s statements for clues on when rates might change again, even if more clarity is unlikely.
The other major release for the Pound is the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends report for August, with overall activity balance forecast to decline from 11.0 to 10.0 when the report is released on Tuesday, August 21 at 11.00 B.S.T.
CBI surveys are often closely followed by the market due to their timeliness and can provide early insight into activity within the economy.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.30.
The projected upper bound is: 1.29.
The projected lower bound is: 1.26.
The projected closing price is: 1.27.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 9 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 46.2450. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 28.78. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 36 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed down -0.000 at 1.275. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 49% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.274 1.276 1.273 1.275 3,705
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.28 1.31 1.36
Volatility: 5 8 9
Volume: 156,655 168,137 157,553
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 6.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of GBP= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 23 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that GBP= is currently in an oversold condition.
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