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Monday, October 25, 2021

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Exchange Rate to Break Through to $1.30 if Boris Johnson Secures Majority in December Election?

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Exchange Rate to Break Through to $1.30 if Boris Johnson Secures Majority in December Election?

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is consolidating its gains this morning, after roaring higher overnight as a highly influential opinion poll suggested Boris Johnson is on track to win big in next month’s general election.

At the time of writing the GBP/USD exchange rate is trading at around $1.2930, virtually unchanged from today’s starting levels but up from $1.2850 on Wednesday.

The Pound (GBP) has skyrocketed this week, spurred higher by a crucial poll which indicates the Conservatives are likely to secure a convincing majority on 12th December.

YouGov published its multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll overnight on Wednesday, which predicted the Tories will win a majority of 68 seats, the party’s biggest win since 1983.

The MRP poll is highly regarded by analysts as it uses a model that attempts to work out which party will win in each constituency. It was also the first poll to correctly predict that Theresa May would lose her majority in the election 2017.

It’s hoped that in securing a majority Boris Johnson will be able to push his Brexit deal through parliament, providing markets with more clarity on the whole process and giving a short-term boost to the Pound.

However with two weeks still to go before UK voters go to the polls, there is still everything to play for.

Should Labour defy the odds and manage to narrow the gap enough to prevent a Tory majority then it’s likely we could see Sterling meet by some significant volatility next month.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.31.

The projected lower bound is: 1.27.

The projected closing price is: 1.29.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 54.7393. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.92. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 27 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 72. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed down -0.001 at 1.291. Volume was 10% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 64% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.292 1.295 1.290 1.291 101,061
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.29 1.27 1.27
Volatility: 7 10 10
Volume: 99,474 106,577 132,371

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX GBP= is currently 1.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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