British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) continues to show little movement this week
GBP/USD continues to drift this week. In Wednesday’s North American trade, the pair is trading at 1.3207, up 0.01% on the day. On the release front, British CBI Realized Sales shocked with a reading of -18, compared to the forecast of 5 points. There are no major U.S. indicators out of the United States. On Thursday, the U.S. releases Final GDP and unemployment claims.
The Brexit saga continues at a fever pitch, with new developments on almost daily basis. Remarkably, the pound continues to show little movement this week. On Monday, lawmakers voted to take control of the Brexit process away from the government. Parliament is holding votes on various non-binding alternatives. These could range from a hard Brexit to holding a second referendum. The EU extended the March 29 Brexit deadline last week. If May’s withdrawal deal fails to pass for a third time, the U.K. would leave the EU on April 12 without an agreement. If the deal is approved, the deadline would be extended until May 22.
After a sharply dovish Fed meeting last week, risk apprehension has risen considerably. This could mean headwinds for the Canadian dollar, a minor currency. The Fed said that it had no plans to raise rates before 2019, and also lowered its growth forecast for 2019 to 2.1%, down from 2.3% in December. On Friday, the spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury notes turned negative, signifying an inverted yield curve. All eyes will be on U.S. Final GDP, which will be released on Thursday and should be treated as a market-mover.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.35.
The projected lower bound is: 1.30.
The projected closing price is: 1.33.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.1177. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 55.84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 39. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed up 0.004 at 1.325. Volume was 1% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.321 1.327 1.316 1.325 180,826
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.32 1.31 1.30
Volatility: 9 11 11
Volume: 180,524 174,775 179,582
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 2.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.
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