British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) continued weakness suggests that we could go much lower
Yesterday, I have the perception that perhaps we could find enough support to cause this market to bounce. While that hasn’t necessarily been eliminated, the Thursday candle doesn’t exactly instill a lot of confidence.
The fact that we rallied and then gave back all of those gains on a day that the Americans weren’t even doing business is not a good sign. Ultimately, this is a scenario that will probably play out on the weak side, but the jobs number coming on Friday could turn things around.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.27.
The projected lower bound is: 1.24.
The projected closing price is: 1.26.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 11.4173. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.20. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 25 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed unchanged at 1.258. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 30% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.258 1.258 1.257 1.258 1,720
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.26 1.28 1.29
Volatility: 3 7 10
Volume: 105,055 130,265 168,993
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 2.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.