British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Broader Range Continues

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Broader Range Continues

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Broader Range Continues

The pound to dollar exchange rate has alternated between weekly gains and losses for six consecutive weeks and the pair largely remains range bound.

Last week, an early week attempt at the 1.3000 brought hope among bulls for a range break. However, the pair failed to follow through and pushed lower for a small weekly loss.

A catalyst will likely be required for a range break and it doesn’t seem like one will be presented this week. For one, the economic calendar is quite light. But more importantly, with Thanksgiving on Thursday, it is likely that volatility will slow, especially in the second half of the week.

It is still possible that the pair sees a bit of volatility on political developments in the UK. Or a further development in the US-China trade war. But unless there is news on either front, I suspect GBP/USD will be contained within a tight range in the week ahead.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.31.

The projected lower bound is: 1.27.

The projected closing price is: 1.29.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 24 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 32.0095. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 24 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed up 0.007 at 1.290. Volume was 14% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 63% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.285 1.291 1.284 1.290 96,717
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.29 1.27 1.27
Volatility: 6 10 10
Volume: 96,072 107,490 133,449

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX GBP= is currently 1.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.

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