British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) British Election Polls Show Tight Race

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) British Election Polls Show Tight Race

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) British Election Polls Show Tight Race

GBP/USD has posted slight gains for a third successive day and is currently at its highest level since November 18th. In European trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2970, up 0.24% on the day.  On the economic front, BRC Retail Sales Monitor recorded a sharp drop of 4.9%, compared to the estimate of -0.4%. This points to weak consumer demand, which is bad news for the British economy.

PMIs in the Spotlight

The British manufacturing sector has been struggling, with Manufacturing PMI readings mired below the 50-level, which separates contraction from expansion. In October, the PMI improved to 49.6, but slipped lower in November, with a reading of 48.9. Still, this figure beat the forecast of 48.3 pts. Next up is Construction PMI, which has also been pointing to contraction. The PMI came in at 44.2 in October and the estimate for November stands at 44.5 pts.

British Election Polls Show Tight Race

Only a week ago, Boris Johnson and his Conservatives had a comfortable 11-point lead in the polls ahead of Labour. That lead has fallen to 6-9 points in the latest polls, which could translate into neither party winning a majority. With less than two weeks until Election Day, the uncertainty of a tight race could weigh on the British pound.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.32.

The projected lower bound is: 1.28.

The projected closing price is: 1.30.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 89.9105. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 31 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 183.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed up 0.001 at 1.300. Volume was 96% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 53% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.299 1.300 1.299 1.300 4,075
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.29 1.27 1.27
Volatility: 6 10 9
Volume: 90,549 103,736 130,398

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX GBP= is currently 2.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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