British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) British Construction PMI disappointed, with a score of 48.6

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) British Construction PMI disappointed, with a score of 48.6

British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) British Construction PMI disappointed, with a score of 48.6

GBP/USD has posted slight gains in the Tuesday session. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2689, up 0.20% on the day. On the fundamentals front, British Construction PMI disappointed, with a score of 48.6, indicating contraction. This missed the estimate of 50.6 points. In the U.S., the sole event was Factory Orders. The indicator declined by 0.8%, above the estimate of -1.0%. This marked the second decline in three months. On Wednesday, the U.K. releases Services PMI. The U.S. releases ADP payrolls and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

British PMIs, which are key gauges of the economic activity, dropped into contraction territory in April. Construction PMI fell to 48.6, its third decline in four months. This followed a manufacturing PMI of 49.4, marking the first contraction since July 2016. Manufacturing news from the U.S. also disappointed, as ISM Manufacturing PMI slowed to 52.1, down from 53.0 a month earlier. This was the PMI’s weakest reading since November 2018. Global demand has fallen off due to trade tensions, and unless this situation improves, manufacturing in the U.K and the U.S. could continue to head downwards.

The Federal Reserve has sounded neutral about the direction of a rate move, but the markets are expecting a rate cut, and the president of the St. Louis Fed came out in favor of a cut on Monday. James Bullard was blunt and pessimistic, saying that the Fed might have to lower rates shortly due to low inflation and the ongoing trade war with China. Bullard warned that the Fed may have to deal with “an economy that is expected to grow more slowly going forward, with some risk that the slowdown could be sharper than expected due to ongoing global trade regime uncertainty“. Bullard added that the current benchmark rate, which is at a range of 2.25% to 2.50%, is too high for current economic conditions, and recommended lowering rates in order to stabilize the economy.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.28.

The projected upper bound is: 1.28.

The projected lower bound is: 1.26.

The projected closing price is: 1.27.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 18 white candles and 32 black candles for a net of 14 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 67.1341. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.50. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 5. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed up 0.005 at 1.271. Volume was 12% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 30% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.266 1.271 1.264 1.271 142,679

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.27 1.29 1.29
Volatility: 5 7 10
Volume: 144,818 153,714 175,210

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX GBP= is currently 1.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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