British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) break below 200-day required for bears to get going
The Pound-to-U.S. Dollar rate is trading at 1.2993 at the start of the new week, with holiday-thinned Monday trade ensuring currency markets are witnessing low volatility.
The exchange rate is however still about a half a percent lower than where it was a week ago, suggesting near-term momentum in GBP/USD is to the downside.
Most currencies saw limited movement in the run-up to Easter as many traders closed out their positions before the weekend.
Nevertheless, the Pound gained after the release of strong wage and retail sales data, but despite this, the Dollar rose more due to stronger U.S. data and doubts creeping in about the previously negative assessment of the U.S. economy.
It is now no longer the foregone conclusion that the Federal Reserve won’t hike this year.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.32.
The projected lower bound is: 1.28.
The projected closing price is: 1.30.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 9.4252. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 30 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 37 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -149.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed down -0.000 at 1.298. Volume was 34% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 40% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.299 1.300 1.297 1.298 112,197
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.30 1.31 1.30
Volatility: 4 10 11
Volume: 157,048 174,130 179,333
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 0.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.
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